Over the longer term, the West also needs to help Ukraine build up its conventional naval capabilities such as frigates and submarines. This begins with a need for greater supplies of anti-ship missiles and amphibious training for Ukraine’s armed forces. These ships limit the Ukrainian navy’s ability to strike Russian naval capabilities and key military targets in Crimea.Īs the war rages, the West needs to reconsider how it will support Ukraine’s naval strategy. Its flagship frigate, the Hetman Sahaidachny, was scuttled in March 2022 and the country has largely had to rely on a small fleet of four or five patrol boats, which are used for reconnaissance and protection missions. For its part, Ukraine has no sea-based forces to seriously challenge Russia’s naval forces. Russia still has the means to use frigates and submarines to launch cruise-missile attacks on Ukrainian forces and civilian targets, as it has throughout the war. Russia still enjoys relative military dominance in the Black Sea, despite the attack in Crimea on Russia’s Black Sea fleet with a mix of flying and maritime drones. Russia may well use the Black Sea to avoid an outright military defeat and to use its naval position there to coerce Ukrainian leaders and avoid making concessions during peace talks that could favor Ukraine. Despite its setbacks, the Russian navy can still bombard targets in Ukraine and to continue its blockade of the country. Armstrong wrote in this publication, naval strategy can be boiled down to a simple concept, command of the sea, and then using that command for a blockade, bombardment, or putting boots on the ground. If Ukraine is able to push Russian-occupation forces further out of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions, Moscow may intensify its use of the Black Sea as a strategic buffer to protect Crimea. These advantages could enable Russia to pursue a bastion strategy, wherein the Russian navy operates from relatively safe coastal areas, well-defended from outside attack, and uses these areas to launch long-range attacks into Ukraine on critical infrastructure. One such area concerns Russia’s naval forces in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, where despite successful Ukrainian attacks, Moscow still retains critical advantages. While it is difficult to determine how the war will end, it is possible to estimate how Russia’s forces may adapt, beyond threat of escalation. In response, Russia has gone into a state of mobilization and formally annexed four territories, which President Putin has vowed to defend with whatever means necessary. Kyiv’s military advances have allowed the country to seize back more of its territory, vindicating Western efforts to deliver military equipment and weapons to Kyiv to stem Russian advances and to enable Ukrainian forces to retake territory Russia had annexed. Russia is struggling in its war on Ukraine.
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